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So if it’s just about to write down blunt code for a website, it’s gonna be a computer pretty soon.
However, let’s move towards product overning from software, requirements engineering, software architecture, etc, and above all areas that will then become somewhat more complex, then I can tell you this will take a very long time to make AI competitive.
I think in the short term, AI will increase the need for developers rather than lower, because the language models that are used to date are quite unsuitable for larger projects that go beyond implementing a bubble-sort algorithm.
And at the latest in all the other computer sciences (whether consulting, project management, etc.) AI can not replace human interaction until now.
Depending on the fact that the IT industry is very extensive, so there are not only programmers. If it is only about software development, the exact range of requirements must still be clarified with the customer/contractor. This sounds trivial, but sometimes more difficult than actual programming;-) Then you can only tell the AI what to program.
As I said, there are many other jobs. For example, the servers or Network components are serviced (change hard disks,…), which are part of activities that will definitely not make robots in the next 10-20 years.
Do not hurt if you can do something robots
Depending on the fact that they can do something doesn’t automatically mean that it’s better than a person. Robots are currently mainly used in industry in repetitive and simple activities, and for complex work steps they are currently not to be used.
The most dangerous problem of human work is that you make mistakes. After 20 years of freedom of error
I’m a major software developer.
Given that programming is only 20% of my working time, it really doesn’t matter if a “KI” can create programs very quickly.
It’s better to take care of the remaining 80%, and that she can, I’m not going to experience it anymore.
Just the pure code goes more and more to the AI! But it must also know what to code!! So it needs developers and less programmers!
Then the computer scientist becomes AI manager.
At the moment there are many more applications that want to be programmed than you can program with the available work force.