Why have weather forecasts been so inaccurate lately? They predict a 70-80% chance of rain, and then it doesn't rain at all. Such miscalculations didn't even exist in the 1980s and earlier. What's going wrong?
Other countries also manage to predict the weather effortlessly with a very small error rate.
(3 votes)
Loading...Google doesn't turn up anything. Maybe someone knows something? I have to pack my suitcase for a school trip 😅
So are you girls so sensitive to the cold that it's 21 degrees Celsius when it rains?
How much snow did you have last week?
And how long does a hurricane like this last?
hello, if the clock is set back tomorrow, then it will definitely be light at 6 or 7 or
Where you had nothing but sun at 35 degrees every day for two weeks, a sea at 30 degrees, and then you come home and have such terrible weather… ;(
https://www.rnd.de/digital/wetter-apps-auf-smartphones-darum-ist-die-vorhersage-ungenau-W2GBCOJDZ3ICYLNKHRH67JVIFM.html
It is therefore not only a question which computational model (or in the case of the DWD which models) is used, but also how to present the results. The DWD would never come around the corner with any alleged probabilities – because people are only confused.
People are already confused when it means that in some regions of the country there can be high temperatures of up to 40°C – from which it becomes: in all of Germany there will be 40 on this day.
Thank you, but this is not a serious source for me.
predict 70-80% for the next day, including either limitless dilettantism or just a large portion of trinity.
And again: other countries create precise predictions. There’s something wrong with your answer.
Maybe again here?
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/faq/wetter-app-handy-schlecht.html
What’s one?
Where did you get the value? By Wetter.de?
The DWD also creates relatively precise predictions.
I’m sure you confused something. The forecasts have never been as accurate as today as the computing systems are becoming more and more efficient. As a pilot I use not only the forecasts of the flight weather advisers but also the various weather apps and so far the forecasts were always amazingly accurate.
A friend of mine, also a pilot, tells me exactly the opposite.
Well, then your friend is probably not long enough pilot to judge in detail.
The percentages result from the fact that in the time of the weather recordings it rained on days with these weather conditions to 80%. Of course, there are still 20% left where it is not raining. There’s nothing wrong with that.
There is often a misunderstanding of the interpretations of the population.
Can you indicate a source for this? I think that’s bullshit. The percentage yields refer to the day or weekday. Depending on the graphics.
Look at Mr. Kachelmann’s side, everything is miraculously explained. You should rethink your tone.
And why do they change often?
Try to meet an exact weather forecast yourself.
What do you expect?
!00% rain if the probability is 80%?
Just a prediction, but may not have to be.