Wahrscheinlichkeit, Einstieg?

Hello.

You’ve got four bullets, they’re all pulled. The diagram should now illustrate the probability with which the word OTTO is formed and with which not.

Since there are 2 times O and 2 times T, one has at the beginning a probability of 2/4 = 1/2 to draw the letter O and 1/2 not to draw the letter O.

and that’s exactly what’s on both sides. Now there are 3 balls in the sack. Below O, T is asked. There are still 3 balls in the pack, 2 of which are T. The probability for a T is now 2/3.

The probability that the O was drawn before was 1/2

So what’s on the other side? Well, there are still 2 T and 1 O in the pack. So not T would be just the one O of 3 balls in total.

How’s it going?

3 row right. There are still 1T and 1O in the pack at this point. So the likelihood for T is? 1/2 again.

And on the left?

In the last row is only the O in the pack, so:

There is no O at all. Thus, in 100/600 = 1/6 of all cases the letters are drawn in the order OTTO. And what about the left side? In my opinion, superfluous and also does not help in understanding very much, but this is a matter of opinion!

LG