Math problem: Conditional probability?

asjslkdjfByasjslkdjf

Hello, can someone help me with this math problem?

At the border, cars are inspected for contraband. In addition, it is determined whether the car in question has a foreign or domestic license plate. Which of the following probabilities must be compared with the probability P(contraband) in order to investigate the influence of a foreign license plate on the probability that the car contains contraband?

a) P(Contraband ∣ Foreign registration)

b) P(Foreign registration number ∣ Contraband)

Thanks in advance!

(1 votes)
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eterneladam
eterneladam
3 years ago

(a), this is the probability of smuggling given foreign license plate. But I don’t think you can answer that as unambiguously, because it applies according to the formula of Bayes

P(Schmuggelware ∣ Foreign license plate) =

P(Ausländerzeichen ∣ Schmuggelware) * P(Schmuggelware) / P(Ausländerzeichenzeichen),

(a) and (b) are linked to one another in this manner.

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