Can anyone solve this lottery problem mathematically?
1.
Player A plays 6 out of 49 according to the system and marks 7 instead of 6 numbers + a super number.
2.
Player B, with the money that Player A spends on system tickets, buys regular tickets and chooses 6 out of 49 numbers plus a super number. Player B therefore checks several boxes for the price Player A spends.
3
Player C develops a neural network that uses the data to make predictions about the winning numbers. He takes an Excel spreadsheet that only contains the jackpot numbers (since the lottery was invented) and looks at which numbers and number combinations have occurred most frequently. Example for the number 1: 1, 1 and 2, 1 and 2 and 3, etc. He knows from school that lottery numbers are stochastically independent. Nevertheless, he believes that there is a certain dependency that depends on the speed at which the urn is spinning, the weight of the individual balls, the position of the individual balls, etc. Player C is of the opinion that there are a lot of parameters that ultimately influence the final result and since it is almost impossible to take all of these parameters into account, he has decided to develop a neural network and proceed as if there were a dependency in a very chaotic system.
Ask:
Which game strategy is better if not only the jackpot but also the prize categories starting at 1000 euros should be considered?
Justify it mathematically using probabilities and mathematical reasoning.
LG.
(2 votes)
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All this strategy is equivalent, and unfortunately everyone is equally bad.
The lottery system really works with an extremely good random generator to determine the numbers, it doesn’t matter how to generate these numbers, the match probability, with the same number of games (= the same game bet) is always the same high.
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But there’s another way (I’m telling my secret):
You have to play against the other players.
The probability of profit is completely independent of the selected figures.
But the profit level is not.
If you use numbers that many other players also use, then even the profit at 6 correct ones can be really surprisingly low (in extreme cases even below 1000 euros).
Therefore, you have to choose numbers and number combinations that as few of the other players as possible.
You can’t improve the success rate, but the financial success, should your numbers really be drawn.
There I would have an objection: you can of course choose the numbers that many players would not choose to maximize chances of winning and take the tips of lottery companies, e.g. to numbers over 31 as most of their birthdays tap or numbers that do not give a pattern etc.
There is a big problem in terms of this, because many players know very well that they have to tap such numbers that others would rather not tap and take the tips of the lottery companies and that then leads to more numbers being tapped over 31 or numbers without recognizable patterns. Accordingly, the typing on numbers above 31 or numbers that do not give a pattern is pointless.
You would have to collect and evaluate the data of all tips to make relevant statements about which numbers should be tapped. However, since these data are not available, there is no significant “strategy” in terms of this.
It is true, but at least to some extent there are such statistical investigations.
There was – but it was about 30 years ago – a pocketbook that had published a statistics professor, in which he presented the allegations of various studies that his students had gathered.
And, yes, your statement regarding the numbers over 31 (= no birthdays) is correct, as there are not sooo many of them.
But only numbers below 31 to choose (birth days) is also bad.
A healthy mixture makes sense.
And of course, as far as possible, no numbers that have been frequently drawn.
And no numbers that have rarely been drawn.
Addendum: these “strategy” are equally bad but not the same, in the sense of the probability calculation. It already makes a difference whether you tap 7 numbers and play for system or whether you are pushing your numbers and playing normally.
That the jackpot prizes also have to be shared or that the winning payouts are very low at 4, 5 or 6 (without a supernumber) anyway, we don’t need to talk about it.